Climate change

Emergency on planet Earth

People, we have a problem – it’s called climate change. The world is getting hotter. We humans are to blame. If we don’t do something about it quick, bad things are going to happen – and not at some point in the distant future, but within our lifetimes…

It’s been the hottest decade since records began over 200 years ago. We’re not just talking a few mild Octobers here: the World Health Organisation estimates that 160,000 people die every year as a result of climate change. The spread of malaria is the biggest killer, but we can also see the direct effects closer to home. You might have enjoyed the summer of 2003, but it was also the deadliest heatwave Europe has known, claiming 50,000 lives across the continent – ironically, it’s a pretty chilling statistic.
Polar ice is melting, which isn’t just bad news for the polar bears: as a result, sea levels are rising, putting millions of people at risk in low-lying coastal areas. Countries like the Maldives and Tuvalu could be wiped out entirely. Glaciers are melting too, which will add to flooding, but also lead to water shortages in many countries. Rainfall patterns are changing: some places are getting more, others less. Either way, floods and droughts are on the increase. Annoying if you live in York; deadly if you live in Mozambique.
By 2050, if global warming continues unchecked, floods, famine and rising sea levels will create hundreds of millions of refugees. The ecological impact will be catastrophic. According to some estimates, up to 40% of all species face extinction: reruns of Planet Earth in 50 years could make tragic viewing.

The heating bill

Climate change will also be an economic disaster, according to the government’s top economist, Sir Nicholas Stern. In a major report last year, he predicted that the effects of climate change could see the global economy shrink by 20%: on top of everything else, a worldwide recession will be the last thing we need. To prevent this, the report says, we’ll need to spend 1% of global output on tackling climate change: in other words, if we spend ten quid now, we’ll save £200 down the line.
“We have the time and knowledge to act but only if we act internationally, strongly and urgently,” Sir Nicholas warns.
“Urgently” is the key word there. This year could make a massive difference to the future of our planet. Either we get our act together and get serious about reducing emissions – individually and collectively, nationally and globally. Or we carry on driving round in ridiculous big cars, buying pre-packaged vegetables flown in from the other side of the world and merrily chopping down the rainforests.
So, what’s it to be then?

The Solutions

First of all, don’t start building your space ark yet. Climate change is such a massive issue that it sometimes seems beyond our power to do anything about it. (Head, sand, and all that.) That’s not the case though: a lot of research, discussion, imagination and money has already gone into coming up with political, social and technological innovations that, together, will make a difference. Here’s a few of them…

Kyoto

The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty that sets targets for countries to reduce the amount of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) they produce. Industrialised nations have agreed to cut emissions by 2012 by an average of 5.2% compared to 1990 levels. There are no set targets for developing countries yet, as they’re not the ones causing the bulk of the problem (although they are more likely to suffer the consequences).
This was one reason etc.’s favourite cement-headed cowboy, George W Bush (along with Australia), gave for not backing the treaty, which some see as a devilish liberal plot against America. However, a number of states and cities, including California and New York, have passed laws that bring them in line with (or even ahead of) Kyoto targets.
The UK is currently well on the way to meeting its 8% target. However, Kyoto is only a starting point: even if every country made its 2012 goals (highly unlikely), it’s still way short of the 60% reduction most climate scientists think we should aim for.
And the whole thing will be pretty pointless if CO2 emissions rise significantly in China and India. At the moment, a UK resident produces about ten times more greenhouse gas than someone in India – but if a billion Indians were to copy our lifestyle, we’d be in serious trouble. Both China and India are working hard to develop greener technologies. It’s in all our interests to give them as much help as possible.

Emissions Trading

This does what it says on the tin. Countries that are failing to meet their Kyoto targets can buy carbon credits from ones that are doing well – so long as the overall reduction is reached.
Emissions trading creates a powerful incentive for countries to exceed their targets – so they have something to trade with – and the idea of using carbon as an alternative currency could work on all sorts of levels. Industrial ‘climate exchanges’ have been set up in the EU and Chicago, where companies trade carbon emissions while working towards annual reductions. It could even work for individuals. Sure, it would be hard to manage, but imagine if Rio Ferdinand had to buy carbon credits from you if he wanted a new SUV. Nice thought, isn’t it?

Green Taxes

Gordon Brown recently announced plans to raise a billion pounds in new ‘green’ taxes – chiefly on air travel and petrol. This was far less than most environmentalists wanted – but too much for people who believe climate change is just a massive conspiracy concocted by the government as an excuse to raise taxes (particularly when tax rates in the UK are some of the highest in Europe).
You can certainly see why people get angry about increases on fuel tax in areas where there’s no public transport, and putting a duty on air travel will mean poorer families having to save harder for their annual holiday while the rich continue to jet around regardless. Green taxes, however, could encourage people to switch from carbon-heavy lifestyles to greener alternatives – and the revenue raised will help to support these. Taxes on SUVs, for example, could subsidise electric cars; a higher rate of tax for businesses which don’t decrease their emissions could fund tax breaks for the ones that do.

Renewable Energy

Fossil fuels have provided us with cheap, plentiful electricity for so long, it’s only recently that serious research has gone into developing alternatives. There’s still a long way to go, but the signs are promising.
Wind power already supplies 20% of Denmark’s electricity demands, and it’s on the increase elsewhere (although some people object to the windmills, especially eagles, who fly into them with unhealthy results. etc. mourns the eagles, but finds the windmills rather beautiful, actually). Solar power is growing by 30% a year, and the technology is improving all the time; the potential, particularly in India and Africa, is huge. Wave and tidal power are also promising – especially in the UK – although it’s a while before they’ll be up and running on a significant scale.
Another alternative energy source is geothermal power, which taps into volcanic goings-on beneath the Earth’s surface. In Iceland, it’s used to heat 90% of buildings, and is one of the reasons why the Icelanders expect to be the world’s first carbon neutral country by 2050.
Hydropower plants provide over 15% of electricity worldwide – though damming rivers creates other environmental issues. Even more significant, and controversial, is nuclear power. Nuclear power stations produce huge amounts of energy for little CO2, and the technology is already in place: France gets almost four-fifths of its electricity this way. Less appealing are the cost, safety fears and the connection with nuclear weapons; to some, the idea of saving the world by increasing radioactive waste is absurd.

Energy Efficiency

As well as finding new ways of providing energy, we need to use less of it. All sorts of energy efficient technologies already exist – although they’re not used as much as they should be. Fluorescent lightbulbs, for example, consume a quarter of the electricity of conventional bulbs, and last far longer – but because they cost more in the first place, few people buy them.

Alternative transport

Transport accounts for a quarter of the UK’s carbon emissions. Improved public transport (and train tickets we could bloody well afford) would make a big difference, but nobody realistically expects us to abandon our cars any time soon. However, there are alternatives – see our driving feature for more info.

Offsetting

Going carbon neutral involves ‘offsetting’ your CO2 emissions by paying for projects that will soak up the carbon you produce. The obvious way to do this is by planting trees, though alternatives include supplying solar panels or low-energy lightbulbs to developing countries.
Offsetting is becoming the thing to do, whether you’re HSBC, Brad Pitt, Jarvis Cocker or the Olympic Games. A number of schemes allow you to offset your own emissions – either in total, or for a particular event, like a wedding or a long-haul holiday. Some travel companies now automatically offer you the chance to offset your flights when you book.
Offsets are great for your conscience, but they aren’t going to solve global warming on their own. Coldplay planted 10,000 mango trees in India to neutralise the making of A Rush of Blood to the Head, but four years later, many of the trees had died. More successful was last year’s World Cup, whose Green Goal project supplies clean energy to families in a region of India devastated by the tsunami.

To find out more, go to www.carbonneutral.com or www.climatecare.org.

What can I do?

You might wonder why you should bother catching the bus when Jay-Z and Beyonce charter a private jet just to transport their luggage around (Want more celebrity eco-gossip? Check out www.ecorazzi.com). But if all of us do our bit, we can make a big difference – and it’s easier to reduce the size of your carbon footprint than you might think. Go to our A-Z feature, to make a difference in your home life, and then…

Hassle people

To tackle global warming, we’re going to have to change a lot of people’s mindsets. Get your family and friends to do their bit (try not to lose your friends in the process). Pester your school or college to be more carbon-friendly (call it an extra-curricular project – they’ll love you for it). Show your support by signing-up to an environmental group concerned with climate change: joining email campaigns or signing petitions is a painless way of keeping up the pressure on the powers that be. If you want to bother some politicians, a good place to start is www.theyworkforyou.com. Democracy rules! Make your voice heard.
So, there it is. Climate change is real, and it’s happening right now. We know you have other things to worry about – life can be annoyingly distracting – and that’s fine, but unfortunately this mess is going to be up to you to sort out in 2050, when you’ll be running things (we’ll have boarded up the etc. tower by then and will be going enthusiastically senile). Until then, it’s a team effort: do your bit at home, use your vote when you turn 18, and don’t pretend that this is going to go away. It isn’t. But if we work together, the future is nothing to be scared of.

The Science Bit

Right. Climate change: a quick recap…

If the Earth had no atmosphere, we’d frazzle in the sun’s heat by day, but freeze our little toes off every night. Luckily, ‘greenhouse gases’ – like carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour – absorb some of the infrared radiation from the sun, keeping our planet pleasantly warm.
But you can have too much of a good thing. Over the last couple of centuries, we’ve been adding to the levels of CO2 in the air by burning carbon-rich fuels like oil and coal. In the mid-1800s, CO2 made up about 0.028% of our atmosphere; now, it’s around 0.038%. During this time, global temperatures have risen by about 0.8˚C.
Big deal? Unfortunately, yes. By studying the way the climate has behaved in the past, scientists are able to estimate what it might do in the future. According to most estimates, a doubling in CO2 levels compared to pre-industrial times will raise global temperatures by 1.5 – 4.5˚C, although some computer simulations predict a rise as high as 11.5˚C.
If we keep pumping out CO2 at our current rate, we’ll reach this doubling-point some time after 2050. A 3˚C rise would make the Earth hotter than it’s been at any point in human history. Waiting to see whether the predictions are right would be a very dangerous experiment...

Is it really happening?

Scientists are as close as scientists ever are to being certain: yes, manmade global warming is happening. “Consensus as strong as the one that has developed around this topic is rare in science,” says Donald Kennedy, Editor-in-Chief of Science magazine. So why do many people remain unconvinced?
Some powerful vested interests oppose taking action on climate change, and they’ve poured vast amounts of money into trying to cloud the issue. Chief culprits are the oil companies, who’ve spent millions on funding and promoting the work of a handful of global warming ‘sceptics’ – few of them climate specialists. With such powerful backing, the sceptics’ arguments receive far more media coverage than they deserve – and have also influenced politicians who should know better.
These days, few deny that some sort of global warming is happening. Even much of the oil industry is now on board: BP, once sceptical, now brands itself ‘Beyond Petroleum’. However, there are some who claim the human role in climate change has been exaggerated. The Earth’s climate, after all, has seen huge changes throughout its history, long before cars were ever invented.
This is true: a few million years from now, Earth’s climate will no doubt be completely different (and humans are unlikely to be around to experience it). What happens in the next century is a more pressing concern, though. Natural causes, like variations in the heat of the sun, just don’t explain what we’re currently going through.
Climate sceptics pick up on any inconsistencies in climate change research to suggest that the whole science is uncertain – in which case, they claim, it’s not worth changing our current carbon-clogged lifestyle.
Predicting the future isn’t an exact science: disagreements between climate scientists are inevitable, and healthy. And we certainly need a debate about the best way to respond to global warming. But not doing anything, on the off-chance that the overwhelming majority of the world’s leading climate scientists turn out to be wrong, is far too stupid a gamble to even consider.

Hang on, how long have we known about this?

The idea of ‘greenhouse gases’ had already been around for three decades when Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius studied the role of carbon dioxide in changing the global climate. He calculated a doubling of CO2 levels would cause a 5˚C rise in global temperatures – not far from current estimates.
It wasn’t till the 1970s, though, that climate scientists began to take the idea of global warming seriously. By 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen had enough evidence to tell the US Congress he was “99% certain” manmade global warming was happening.
World leaders listened: at the Rio Earth Summit in 1990, they pledged to “protect the climate system for the benefit of humankind.” Unfortunately, precious little action followed. Now, a supreme effort is needed just to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels.
Where next?

Find out more. Now. Start here…

An Inconvenient Truth
This documentary, by former US Vice-President Al Gore, is a must-see movie. It presents the facts on global warming, and its effects, in an accessible, compelling way. You can’t help thinking the world would be in better position to tackle the problem if Gore had beaten George W Bush in the 2000 election…

The Rough Guide to Climate Change
As you’d expect from the excellent Rough Guides series, this clear, concise book covers everything you need to know on the subject: The Symptoms, The Science, The Debates and The Solutions. Essential reading.

Environmental Groups
There are many groups campaigning on global warming. Friends of the Earth (www.foe.co.uk) and Greenpeace (www.greenpeace.org) are good people to know.

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